ตัวเลขประมาณการณ์ GDP ไทยปี 2559 จากอีกสามค่าย

ตัวเลขประมาณการณ์ GDP ไทยปี 2559 จากอีกสามค่าย

เก็บโน๊ทไว้สำหรับ ตัวเลขประมาณการณ์ GDP ของไทยในปี 2559 นี้จากอีกสามค่ายคือ

  1. แบงค์ชาติ (ธปท.) 3.5%
  2. สำนักงานคณะกรรมการพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ สศช. 3-4%
  3. กองทุนการเงินระหว่างประเทศ (IMF) 2.5%

ฝรั่งมองเศรษฐกิจไทยต่างออกไป จาก หน่วยงานในประเทศ โดยให้ต่ำกว่า อยู่ 1%

ถ้ามองทางข้อมูลในอดีตแล้ว GDP ไทยลุ่มๆ ดอนๆมาตลอด โดยโตสุด ที่ 2.4% 2013Q1 หลังจากนั้นมา ก็ย่ำอยู่แถวๆ 1% ตลอด ผิดกับ​ เพื่อนบ้านอย่าง พม่า หรือ เวียดนามที่ GDP โตวันโตคืน ขยายกันมากกว่า 5% มาโดยตลอดในช่วงสามปีหลังๆนี้

Thailand GDP annual growth rate
Thailand GDP annual growth rate

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=thg+pqq&v=201601121547m&h=300&w=600&ref=/thailand/gdp-growth
source: tradingeconomics.com

Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 4.21.30 PM

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=myanmargdpate&v=201601121615m&h=300&w=600&ref=/myanmar/gdp-growth-annual
source: tradingeconomics.com

Myanmar annual GDP growth rate
Myanmar annual GDP growth rate

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=vietnamgdpqoq&v=201601121538m&h=300&w=600&ref=/vietnam/gdp-growth
source: tradingeconomics.com

ถ้าจะเปรียบกับการวิ่งแข่ง ก็เหมือนเราย่ำอยู่กับที่ แต่คู่แข่งวิ่งด้วย “ความเร่ง” มากกว่าเรา 5 เท่า ทั้งๆที่เราบอกกับตัวเองมาตลอดว่า ไทยเป็นศูนย์กลาง อาเซียน มีทำเลที่ตั้งที่เหมาะสม แต่ คำถามต่อมาคือ แล้วเราได้ใช้ประโยชน์อะไรจากจุดแข็ง ที่เรามีแล้วหรือยัง?

[Ted] What makes a good life

[Ted] What makes a good life

I watched this Ted talk today. Robert said about Harvard study on many people life. The study conduct for over 70 years on many people in many variety of status from poor boy in Boston, a man from wealthy family or normal person doing his routine job.

The result of the study is really interesting. It shows that the most important thing of human to live longer with happiness are the quality of relationship they have. The poor relationship tend to shorten people life. The good quality of relationship make people live longer.

The study explain in science that the quality of life reflect the performance of the brain as well. The loneliness person will have shorten life and the brain underperform and lose its capacity. On the other hand, the person live an enjoyable relationship make more long live and healthy brain.

In the conclusion, He asked about what about you. What we are searching for is it wealth or famousness or happiness.

 

Happy new year 2016

Happy new year 2016

Happy new year 2016.

I would say this year countdown is also another year for me to countdown oversea. Last year was Taipei, Taiwan. This year Fukuoka, Japan.

Along with my exchange program as an exchange student in Japan. I would say

明けましておめでとうございます (Akemashiteomedetōgozaimasu)

It is Happy new year in Japanese.

I went to countdown at my professor apartment and have a new year party there. After that We went to Hakozaki Shrine, a well-known shrine for local Japanese.

It is a tradition for Japanese to go to shrine on new year day to pray for goodluck on the upcoming year.

This year I set another resolution for this year.

  • Read 1 book per month: last year was 10 books.
  • Run 10k+ every week, run at least twice a week
  • Self development throught online resources once a month
  • Continue on learning Chinese and Japanese via apps
  • Increase investment portfolio for at lease 10% and win the market.

Hopefully all of these list will be all meet.

Happy new year 2016

Moving to new dormitory

Moving to new dormitory

 

Recently, I have got a problem in commuting between the class and the dorm. I have to spent almost 1 hour to ride a bicycle to the class and another 1 hour back to the dorm in almost midnight!

But problem solved! I have got the permission to move to new dormitory near the class in Hakata station. Just around 15 minutes away.

I got this problem solved by an advice from my classmate in Japanese class. She also live here with her family. She suggest me to ask for moving from the University. As a result, It works!

What I have learn from this is sometime I just need ask when I need help. not just complained about it. Anyone would be able to help. Just ask the question to the right one.

Zara: IT for fast fashion case study

I would like to published my report of Zara: IT for fast fashion based on Harvard Business School case study. This report included in my Global lotistics class of Kyushu Business School.

Case #3 Zara: IT for Fast Fashion

  1. Describe Zara’s business model and its superiority over other competitors in the industry

Zara is one of the world largest fashion retailer. Amancio Ortega, Zara founder believe in close relationship between retailing and manufacturing is key for apparel industry because of unpredictable demand.

Fashion industry changes quickly since their target customers are young, fashion-conscious city dwellers. Their taste of clothing changes rapidly. Instead of marketing and advertising their clothing campaign like its competitors, Zara’s value proposition is chasing fashion trend by product and deliver any style of cloth while it still hot with their capability to quickly respond to the fluctuating demand.

Zara’s core capabilities rely on the frontline employees that currently run 6,500 stores in 85 countries who are in the closest position to their customers. They trust on their employees’ intelligence and judgments on which garment should be on sale at their store rather than making decision from their Head quarter. Moreover, their “Commercial” team which include designers and product managers has wide range of responsibility from purchasing material, placing production order or set the sale prices.

Zara did no above-the-line marketing instead it has three strategies to advertise its products. First, it spends heavily on its stores location to located in the city prime’s area which has a large people traffic. This helps it to gain more recognized form their customer without direct advertising. Second, rapid changing the products makes its customer to visit their store more frequently because the new collection will come and if the customers do not purchase the current displaying garments it might be gone before the customer next visit. Last, Zara clothes are designed and manufactured to be fashionable but not durable. This increase the number of repurchasing as well.

Its operations objective is to reach its quickly and accurately response to their customer demand Zara has three major process to make these happen. The first one is “Ordering”, store manager placed order to their H.Q. twice a week for newly available garment and replenishment of existing items. This process is made less than 24 hours from a digital order form. Ordering makes shorten the process of ordering in the old way from sending fax back and forth of a long-long fax paper from each retail store. It speeds up the process by using the IT technology enhancement on their ordering process. Next, “Fulfillment” this process is to match the number of garment demand with the supply from their distribution center (DC). In normal case, when supply and demand nearly meet. The process let the computer to divide its inventory for each store. There’s no action needed. This minimized the human error of inventory fulfillment and increase the fast response in the day to day operation. However, in case that supply is less than demand, the system helps the commercials team to make decision on which area to ship their product to based on historical sales data.

Zara has the most number of items introduce to the market around 11,000 items per year more than its any competitor average 2,000-4,000 this offer their customer more choice to shop their new cloth easier.

With the short lead time from planning to production in 3 weeks plus delivering to retain store within 2 days this also make Inditex the leader in fast fashion retailer that no others competitor can compete with this capability.

Financial results of Zara reflect its excellence operation and cost structures. The growth of its operating revenue has almost quadruple in 6 years from 1996-2002[1] and still growing. Its cost of good sold account for around 49% second lowest after H&M at 45% while Gap has 66% of their cost of good sold this number represent its good position in cost control as a result its net margin around 11.02% close to H&M at 12.49%.

Analyze current and potential weakness in Zara’s IT infrastructure and their strategy

Currently, Zara do not have any formal IT strategy or position to make it clearly. This makes their IT efforts unmeasurable on its current and future actions on its pros/cons on both IT and business perspectives which could put Zara business stuck in technological limitation and make their business slow down than its competitors. For instance, Sanchez propose solution to stock up the POS machine to prevent lacking of POS machine in the future in case their venter discontinue its production line. This might be one of the possible solution. However, in the business perspective to purchase assets with out using it this will affect their financial performance more or less.

Zara’s IT infrastructure relies on an obsolete technology such as POS terminals run on DOS operating system or personal digital assistants (PDAs). The major disadvantage of this operating system is there’s no longer support by any software company anymore. This might be a great threat to Zara’s business expansion because the technology limitation that unable to have new functions or features response to its business need that might have required immediately in the futures for instance shared inventory information system for nearby retail store location that might lower its logistics cost and shorten the lead time instead of waiting for the next offer in the next 2 weeks.

Zara POS terminal vendor might shutdown their POS machine production line in the future because the cost of producing an obsolete machine might surpass the modern one. Zara does not have any commitment on keep producing its POS machine from its vendor. This will reduce the speed of expansion of its retail store.

Limited to scalability also a major weakness on its current infrastructure. Zara use such as a modem to connect and transmit their sale information or placing order on new and replenishing items. The modem technology has limited functionality such as speed and encryption. The speed of modem might no longer support a large amount of information transfer from increasing the number of retail branch to their H.Q. and manufacturer.

Security on sale information by carrying the floppy disk around the retail store might also cause data loss or leakage. With out secured connected network from each POS machine to HQ or nearby store.

with the upgrade system, what kind of information do you think they should exchange between stores and their H.Q. in La Coruna?

To enhance the speed of sales, quickly response to customer needs and also shorten the lead time making from offering process to fulfillment and manufacturing. They should have a platform to share information start from the retailer back to its head quarter or nearby store such as the number of sale on each SKU on each branch. Number of inventory available for each area. New items available in nearly future.

The number of sales on each SKU in real time, this number help to forecast the number of supply cloth to produce in the nearly future without waiting for employees to submit the total amount of sale information at the end of the day. Also, it can prevent item loss, theft damage or other loss by matching with current inventory number.

Number of inventory available for each area, this number will optimize the inventory available in the same area in case that there’s any available item is required by the same area location. It might possible to notice the customer or deliver to their nearby branch without waiting to make the offer transaction in the next 2 weeks.

New items nearly available, this information will helps store manager to decide in advance which item should they order and display in their store in the next offer instead of making a rush ordering within 24 hours. Also, The new items could help their store to advertise to their customer in advance to get the number of interested customer which will optimize the number if supply to produce more accurately.

  1. Any suggestion for Zara to keep competitive advantage.

 

Management of IT Zara should consider to settle their IT strategy by consulting firm or outside professional to keep they focus on their business and leave the support function to others.

In the technology perspective, the company might consider a public standard technology that does not rely on any vendor to increase their scalability and support their business growth in the future such as web technology or cloud computing.

Web technology is a standard for any device with internet connectivity to connect and share the information in a secure way, this innovation was defined by a non-profit organization The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C)[2] and continuous developed by several world leading company in technology such as Google, Microsoft, Mozilla Foundation, Apple, NTT Docomo, Toshiba Corp, Samsung Electronics and many Universities. This technology is an open standard which Zara could leverage its benefit to apply and customize for its business needs such as a customized new function features to serve store manager in order to make quicker offering and even shorten the lead time from two weeks of production or new item display on store or website which help Zara’s customer can visit a virtually fitting room[3].

Hence, with its benefit such as public open technology (free of charge), standardize, continuous development and scalability it will helps Zara to layouts its IT infrastructure to meet its business growing more flexible.

Another concern about changing in technology is the cost of newly adapted technology might have a large investment which more or less affect the company financial status. Cloud computing might be another choice on Zara technology change since its transform current software license business model from long term contract and large investment on software, hardware and human into pay-as-you-go (PAYG) model[4]. This means the Zara instead of invest large amount of cash into new IT infrastructure, it still could focus on the business competency and use the IT infrastructure as an expense and pay with the rate of its business growth.

 

[1] Inditex Historical Financials, Zara: IT for Fast Fashion Harvard Business Case.

[2] http://www.w3.org/Consortium/Member/List, W3C member list

[3] http://www.fitnect.hu/references/, Virtual mirror and fitting room

[4] https://www.pdc.kth.se/members/edlund/2009-May-27-LitGrid-Vilnius.pdf, Cloud computing. Pay-as-you-go explained. Aake Edlund

Yamato Ta-Q-Bin Case study

Yamato Ta-Q-Bin Case study

I would like to publish my lastest report based on Yamato: Ta-Q-Bin case study from National University of Singapore in my QBS Global logistic class.

*This report comes from my opinion and research only.

yamato

Case #2: “Yamato Transport Co. Ltd.: TA-Q-BIN”

  1. Describe key factor for success of Ta-Q-Bin in Japan

One of the major key success factor of Ta-Q-Bin in Japan is their end to end quality of human resources. Since they are in the labor intensive industry. The core of their business relies on the quality of the frontline employees who interact with their customers.

Their quality process of human resources starts since the quality at the beginning of employment. To ensure Yamato has full control on the standard of service quality over their employees, they employ 100% of their task forces while others competitors outsource this part to third party. This might vary the quality of service standard.

Yamato also defined their Yamato way which provide the core value and company precept and communicate them over their employee during the new employees one-week intensive training session to create the right fundamental corporate culture all over each employees.

Employees are encouraged to contribute their ideas through Voice of Employee (VoE) which employees can provide their feedback, lesson learnt, process improvement while they have learnt from the field to improve the service quality and the excellence ideas will be recognized by the senior managements and award system to reward the employees who introduces the good practices to their center. This process is the continuous improvement (Kaizen) for the company to improve their service quality to be better

Another factor is their operation excellence. Yamato implemented hub-and-spoke system and conduct the ‘last mile’ of delivery where bulk of parcel are transferred between hub and broken down into smaller batch and distribute from hub to district branches and center then delivered to customer. This practice improve efficiency and lower the operating cost by reduce the number of direct delivery to each destination.

Multifunction of employee both sales driver (SD) and Field cast (FC) are the key roles in Ta-Q-Bin operation. They can work in several function within 1 role. Not only driver but salesperson who can provide recommendation for their customer about the packaging and delivery, clerk to collect and issue customer payment on-site also manager who can make a decision on route when there’s any change in volume of parcel in the most efficiency way. This multi-function role plays a significant competitive advantage because of operating cost in salary or wage of the employee is reduced from several roles into only one.

  1. What is the difference between Ta-Q-Bin and other similar delivery service available in your hometown?

In Thailand, delivery service market in almost perfect competition market structure. There are many small service providers in Thailand but they cover only some part of specific area. The biggest player still Thailand post, a state-own enterprise. They offer various type of delivery service both Business-to-Business, Business-to-Consumer and Consumer-to-Consumer.

Recently, Thailand post was modernized and restructured their organization by enhancing their operation with modern technologies.

Management style of Thailand post is difference from Yamato since it’s a state-own enterprise the complex high hierarchy of management[1] compare with the flat organization in Yamato.

The number of domestic parcel shipping of Thailand post is almost 2 billion units with trending up. It less than the the number in Japan domestic market.

Number of Thailand Post parcel from 2012-2014
Number of Thailand Post parcel from 2012-2014

Figure 1 the number of domestic parcel delivery in Thailand (2012-2014) in millions unit

Comparing their financial performance[2] their operating income margin is around 9.18% (2012-2014) which higher than Ta-Q-Bin (around 5.11%-5.29%, 2010-2012) this represent that the performance of Thailand Post is higher than Ta-Q-Bin.

However, the quality and minded service always be the weak spot of Thailand post. It represents a bad reputation of Thailand post delivery service on poor quality. Customer mostly complained about their defect good that was damaged while in the shipping process. The quality of service is the major problem on Thailand Post but they dominate the monopoly in domestic market. Most people in Thailand still accept to use their service because of their price still reasonable with their quality of service.

  1. What are major barriers to launch Ta-Q-Bin service oversea?

Market differences is one of the major barriers to prevent Ta-Q-Bin to launch their service oversea because of their business mostly relies on the quality of employees in the front line which the standard and quality might varies depends on their culture by the example of Taiwan success because of their similar culture and environments with Japan. However, Ta-Q-Bin still has to adapt their service to match with each target market such as delivery service by motorcycle in Taiwan is well-known style. Ta-Q-Bin has to use this way of delivery even it might be dangerous the break the company precept in Japan on “Safety first, sale second”.

On the other hand, another country which has difference culture, local believe and environment has many challenge for Ta-Q-Bin to deal with such as Singapore which customer-to-customer business is relatively low compare with their huge market on business-to-business transaction. Also, low brand awareness in low-sparse demand density result in costly and unrewarding operating cost.

The number of competitors in Shanghai market turns this service into a highly competitive market result with price war. Customer can get a cheaper price from their competitors although the quality of service represent the the low price

However, the booming of e-commerce in China contribute a large growth in logistic business. Ta-Q-Bin leverage their advantage on Cool Ta-Q-Bin on this growth but still in bottle neck with the not ready infrastructure in temperature control fridges and container.

Poor service-mindedness is also a major obstacle for Ta-Q-Bin in several countries such as Singapore, China and Hong Kong which result in high turnover on staff over these country.

Difference culture background also affect the operation of Ta-Q-Bin in Malaysia since most of their population is Muslim, some of their belief is not the same as Japan that could affect the employee training, direction and service quality standard in company core value based on Japanese culture.

  1. how do you foresee the success of their global expansion by 2019? Do you agree or not?

In my view it is possible to achieve their goal of 20% of their total revenue by 2019. Because Ta-Q-Bin expands their market to ASEAN and establish their regional operation in Singapore as an ASEAN hub in this region.

ASEAN Economic Community will be Ta-Q-Bin biggest chance to gain market share over ASEAN regions since the collaboration of free movement of good, service, investment, skilled labor and freer flow of capital among those ASEAN members. Logistics industry will gain the benefit of these movement of goods, services as well.

Most of the ASEAN country are still in developing. It will have a lot of chance to gain market share in those country. The number of logistic service providers are huge but their service quality varies with non standard also, the coverage of the area is cover only major area. There’s still plenty of room for Yamato to expand their business.

However, the diversity of these country is one of Ta-Q-Bin challenges to expand their global market because most of the population are Muslim. They might have many difference culture and consumer behavior compare to the developed country that Yamato is already entered. To issue this challenge carefully joint venture with local firm might be the realistic way to penetrate the market in each local country.

[1] Thailand Post annual report, 2014

[2] Thailand Post annual report, 2014

สำเร็จการศึกษาอย่างเป็นทางการ (แล้วโว้ยยยยย!)

สำเร็จการศึกษาอย่างเป็นทางการ (แล้วโว้ยยยยย!)

 

หนึ่งที่ความสำเร็จของปีนี้คือการเรียนจบโท (ซะที) หลังจากใช้เวลา สองปีของการไม่มีเสาร์อาทิตย์เลย ในที่สุดก็เรียนจบแล้ววววววววว!!!!!

ตั้งแต่เข้าเรียนวันแรก จนถึงวันนี้ เมื่อนึกย้อนกลับไปก็รู้สึกว่าเวลาผ่านไปเร็วมาก น่าจะเพราะไม่มีเวลาได้หยุดเลย วันธรรมดาทำงาน หลังเลิกงานก็ทำการบ้านไม่ก็อ่านหนังสือสอบ วันเสาร์อาทิตย์ก็เรียน ชีวิตติดลูปอยู่เท่านั้น

แต่ก็เป็นความภูมิใจอยู่ลึกๆว่า เราก็สามารถส่งตัวเองเรียนจนจบ แถมยังได้เกรดดีด้วยนะเออ สิ่งที่เรียนรู้จากหลักสูตรการเรียนนี้นอกจากเนื้อหาวิชาการตามปกติแล้ว ยังอัพเกรดเพิ่มซอฟท์สกิลอีกด้วยเช่น ด้านการนำเสนอ เพราะเทอมโปรเจคของแทบทุกวิชา จะต้องมีการนำเสนอหน้าชั้นเรียนด้วย (นำเสนอแบบให้น่าสนใจด้วยนะ) ทำให้ นอกเหนือจากผลงานที่จะต้องทำให้เสร็จแล้ว ยังต้องสามารถนำเสนอ ให้คนอื่นเข้าใจ สิ่งที่เราทำลงไปอีกด้วย ซึ่งซอฟท์สกิลนั้นมีประโยชน์มากๆ เพราะ ไม่ว่าจะทำงานในสาขาอาชีพอะไรก็ตาม ทักษะเหล่านี้ก็ยังเอาไปใช้ได้อยู่เสมอๆ ทำให้นอกเหนือจากการเป็น ผู้เชี่ยวชาญในสาขางานด้านนั้นๆแล้ว ยังเพิ่มมูลค่าให้กับตัวเองในด้านอื่นอีกด้วย

ทักษะอีกอย่างนึงที่ได้จากการเรียนครั้งนี้คือ การจัดการเวลา เพราะการไม่มีเสาร์ อาทิตย์สำหรับพักผ่อนเลยนั้น จำเป็นจะต้องจัดการกับชีวิตทั้ง การเรียน การทำงาน และก็ ชีวิตส่วนตัว ให้ดี ไม่งั้นพังหมด! อย่างเช่น จัดเวลาในปฏิทินไว้เลย ว่าวันไหนซักผ้า วันไหนต้องออกไปวิ่ง เป็นต้น สิ่งเหล่านี้ เหมือนจะมีความเร่งด่วนน้อยกว่า แต่กลับมีความสำคัญกับชีวิตเราพอๆกับด้านอื่นๆเลย

 

Study day in new QBS study room

Kyushu University golden booklet
Kyushu University golden booklet from Hakozaki campus bookstore

Yesterday, I’ve found a study room in Hakozaki campus which provide almost everything I need to study.

the room is so nice well set up with printers, air condition, Wifi, individual study desk and also a small library for international student to borrow English textbook and manga! (that’s the most cool part in the room).

Also, the University also provide a education version of software such as Windows 7 to the latest on Windows 10 and Office 2016!! they provide extremely everything I need to study which I could not found in my country 😦

I think with these welled established facilities, they reduce the obstacle of students and help them to focus on study as much as possible.

I bought a booklet from the University book store. It’s design it pretty cool, golden booklet with the picture of University building which established since 1911.